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At the beginning of 2008 Manchester City Council released a document outlining the principles underlying its climate change strategy. It set an ambitious target to reduce emissions by a million tonnes a year by 2020. It promised a fleshed-out strategy would be consulted on for six months, from the summer. Summer has come (sort of), and the strategy hasn't. And won't.
A council official has told Manchester Climate Fortnightly (MCFly) that there had been an internal review of how climate change was approached, and thus the strategy was no longer going to be developed 'in-house'. The official continued that there was a need for more scoping work, especially with regard to the “mini-stern” reported in this and the previous issue of MCFly. The major stumbling block is to “decouple” carbon emissions from economic growth. “We want to reduce carbon emissions, but we don't want to reduce employment or regeneration” said the official. This tension was present in the principles document itself, where the council stated “we will adopt a higher carbon reduction target if the science shows that a 60% reduction by 2050 will not achieve a high probability of keeping within a 2 degree Centigrade global temperature increase, and we can find ways to protect and enhance the standard of living of our most deprived citizens.”
The council official was unable to give any indications of a new timetable for consultation.
The Council has signed up to “National Indicator 186” on the reporting/reduction of carbon dioxide emissions within its boundaries, and it has also publicly committed to adopting whatever long-term target the Government sets with its Climate Change Bill. But with the delay of the strategy release and consultation, it may well be that we do not see any significant action on climate change until the launch of the “Manchester Climate Change Agency” in March 2009.
Manchester Climate Fortnightly spoke to various environmental groups about the delay.
Friends of the Earth stated “We're disappointed to hear that the launch is being delayed but welcome the council's recognition of the need to make substantial cuts in Manchester's greenhouse gas emissions. We look forward to helping develop a strategy with the vision and ambition you would expect of a city striving to become Britain's greenest."
The Campaign against Climate Change welcomed the publication of Manchester City Council’s Principles Document earlier this year with reservations about some aspects of it (and in particular the absence of a serious engagement with the issue of emissions from aviation). Their spokesperson stated that they were “very disappointed to hear that the City Council will not be consulting on a climate strategy this summer. Climate change is the most serious crisis humanity has ever faced. What we need now from our political leaders is a real sense of urgency, not more prevarication.”
A non-affiliated climate activist commented “It's nice that they're being more thorough, but they could easily have announced that there was going to be a delay. Silence doesn't build trust, and it creates the impression- right or wrong- that they are kicking this into the long grass, or onto a different playing field.”
The Green Party could not be reached for comment
Friday 18th July saw the launch
of Manchester’s Mini-Stern report. Snappily entitled “The economic
impact of EU and UK Climate Change legislation on Manchester City Region
and the North West” the report was commissioned by Manchester Enterprises
and was written by Deloitte.
Known as a “Mini-Stern” for the Manchester
City Region, the analysis follows that of the Stern Report and argues
that continuing with “business as usual” will be far more expensive
in the long term. The 8 page summary report focuses on the 4 key sectors
- Air Transport, Road/Land Transport, Energy Intensive Manufacturing
and Textiles - that are most likely to be directly affected by any lack
of economic adaptation and examines some of the challenges and opportunities.
The report states that “unless it achieves
significant emissions cuts, improves its resilience to Climate Change,
and leverages its assets, the Manchester City Region could fall substantially
short of its economic regeneration goals and targets”. Deloitte’s
calculations suggest that over the next 12 years (by 2020) a “failure
to adapt” scenario could see the North West lose up to £72 billion
in Gross Value Added (GVA) and the City Region up to £21 billion –
which is roughly £8000 per person in Greater Manchester.
However, the report seems to have some
significant omissions. The report does discuss the need for “decoupling
emissions from economic growth” but sidesteps key areas of projected
growth such as aviation. It is clear that the growth in C02 emissions
from the aviation sector continues to be politically sensitive. In relation
to Manchester Airport, the report simply notes that “evidence confirms
the importance of this sector to continued growth of the Manchester
City Region and North West economies.” The report also has little
to say on issues such as house building and water & food security.
In November 2007, the journalist Mark
Lynas argued that “We have about 100 months left. If global greenhouse
gas emissions have not begun to decline by the end of 2015, then our
chances of restraining climate change to within the two degrees "safety
line" - the level of warming below which the impacts are severe
but tolerable - diminish day by day thereafter.”
The mini-Stern report uses a 144 month
timescale (2020) – but whichever calendar we decide to use – the
clock is ticking. Manchester is to be applauded for taking this
initiative but across the City Region it is time for positive responses
from everyone in the political, business and community sectors. Hopefully
the soon to be established Greater Manchester Climate Change Agency
can help kick start this process.
Oh and will someone tell AGMA that ignoring
the airport's C02 emissions will not solve the problem!
The 8 page report summary is available
from the Manchester Enterprises website.